Integrated farming and global warming mitigation in Brazil

Hugo Tameirão Seixas

Why?

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To know the potential of Integrated Livestock-Crop-Forestry (ICLF) systems in Brazil

Reduce national greenhouse gases liquid emissions?

Increase overall productivity?

Improve farm revenue?

Lead agriculture towards sustainability?

How?

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  1. Identify ICLF systems characteristics and dynamics in Brazil

  2. Estimate the potential of ICLF systems to provide benefits, in the context of climate change

  3. Evaluate the implementation of ICLF as a mean to curb and mitigate climate change, in relation to different perspectives of solutions

ICLF characterization

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Systematic review and meta-analysis:
Documents from Scopus and Embrapa
Extraction of experiments data


Experts survey:
Online questionnaire
Fill gaps from literature

ICLF characterization

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  • Management characteristics of ICLF systems

  • Compositions of each component of ICLF systems

  • Production of each component of ICLF systems

  • Effects of ICLF system over soil properties

  • Economical revenue of ICLF systems

  • Potential expansion of ICLF systems in Brazil

Model projections

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Projection scenarios:
ICLF expansion trajectory
ICLF management


LULC projections:
Random process
Not spatial


Benefits estimations:
Based on empirical and mechanistic processes
Uses deterministic and probabilistic factors

Model projections

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  • Accumulated carbon emission and removal

  • Food and fiber productivity

  • Total revenue

Model projections

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Projection scenarios:



  • Rates of ICLF expansion for each year

Model projections

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LULC projections:


  • Each expansion scenario will be repeated 100 times

Model projections

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LULC projections:

Degraded pastures covers a total area of 81 million hectares.

Model projections

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Benefits estimations:


Critical analysis

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Targeted review:
Books and institutional documents
Media news


Results from data:
Contextualized numbers
Expectations for the future

Critical analysis

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  • Social impacts of the expansion of ICLF

  • Relation with other solutions to curb climate change

  • Long term consistence

Overview

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What?

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  • A database with data from ICLF experiments

  • A model for quantifying benefits provided by ICLF systems

  • Data set with future projections regarding the expansion of ICLF

  • Qualitative assessment of the ICLF as public policy

Expected results

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  • Broad view of potential outcomes from the expansion of ICLF

  • Quantitative and qualitative characterization of ICLF systems in Brazil

  • Advance in methods to evaluate agricultural systems

Principles

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Reproducibility
Code version control
Detailed methods description
Data management plan


Transparency
Code, data and documents freely accessible (with license)


Accessibility
Accessible document formats
Data visualization
Simple language